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2003 » Issue 20, Published on Wednesday, May 21, 2003 » Business
By Clyde Noel

There’s a bunch of statistical indicators that show the market has run out of steam. We have risen too fast, and it appears the market is in a consolidating phase. Don’t look for a big drop, but there will be some scaredy-cats taking profits this week.

We will get another batch of economic data on Friday that will offer more clues about what lies ahead, and I look for the market to finish out the week with light selling. Just call it a dip or a pullback, but have the broker put a stop on whatever you do.

One of the biggest concerns is that debt levels are sill high on both corporate and household debt. Low interest rates have helped ease the pain of rising debt, but they will eventually have a chilling effect on consumer spending.

Last week the Dow industrials rose 74 points or 0.9 percent, while the Nasdaq had a weekly gain of 18.38 points or 1.2 percent. The Town Crier index up 23.11 percent Since Jan. 1.

The list of 50 Town Crier stocks is primarily high-tech, and 44 of the 50 listed stocks have risen since Jan. 1. One thousand dollars invested in each of the 50 stocks on Jan. 1 would have produced a profit of $11,555. High-tech is coming out of its cavernous shell.

One of the perplexing reasons for the market decline is an interesting turn with stocks and bonds. Usually they react in opposite directions — when stocks go up, bonds come down. But last week they both rose.

Maybe it’s a hint the Federal Reserve will reduce interest rates again in June. If that happens, both stocks and bonds stand to benefit in the short run.

Stocks stand to rise when the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates because it means that borrowing costs decrease and corporate entities can borrow more for expansion.

Bond prices rise because investors want to grab the securities before the rate of return drops further. Another reason for buying bonds when the interest rates go down the rate drop indicates the economy is struggling. Bonds are a safe hedge until interest rates rise.


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In Our Opinion

Editorial

We’ve recently covered the passing of two of this community’s most involved and committed volunteers, Lee Lynch and Billy Russell. They represented an era when people helped out, not so they could get their name on a building, but because it was simply the right thing to do.

There’s a new generation of volunteers hard at work right now in this community who are carrying on their legacy. The level of involvement in the recent Los Altos Relay For Life event bears this out.